With Beijing and Moscow ramping up their military capabilities, does NATO have the power to stop them? On the day World War II began, George Bernard Shaw wrote, "There will be only two winners: The United States and the Soviet Union." More than eight decades later, as major powers find themselves stuck in a war in Ukraine, there seems to be just one winner this time and that county is not even a direct party to the conflict People's Republic of China. China understands Russia has its interests that China will respect. . The following states joined the treaty after 1949: Greece, Germany, Turkey and Spain. Apart from a nuclear strike or a conventional inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), China lacks the military strength to launch an attack over such a distance. With the reserve forces, the number will go up to a little over 2 million. If Putin had hoped to weaken NATO, the very opposite has happened, with Finland and Sweden on the cusp of joining the transatlantic military alliance. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a frank discussion about the Biden administrations China policy and alternatives that it ought to consider. Six decades after ideological differences between the worlds communist powers resulted in the Sino-Soviet split, China and Russia have reunited, driven by their shared quest for a global redistribution of power and desire to dismantle the U.S.-led world order. For there to be a war between China and NATO, China would have to attack a NATO country. Although we can say that China is not a direct threat to NATO, this does not mean that conflict is impossible. Focusing on international relations, history, and geo-politics, Global Affairs Explained uses original research and data to answer questions often not covered by traditional media. did not have to be awakened. He stressed that while NATO is no party to the Ukraine conflict its tasks are to ensure that Ukraine prevails and to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine and becoming a full-fledged war between Russia and NATO., He said the main message from the meeting in Warsaw was that we will provide support to Ukraine for as long as it takes., It would be a "tragedy for the Ukrainians if President Putin wins in Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, and also dangerous for all of us because it would send the message to all authoritarian leaders that when they use military force, they get what they want.. Commenting on this and other recent articles is just one benefit of a Foreign Policy subscription. In recent weeks, Biden has sent several thousand U.S. troops to reinforce NATOs eastern flankand for good reason. NATO is also able to add many more reservists than China, contributing to its overall military strength. Artificial intelligence development may get held up for political reasons. China, as an authoritarian power, can mobilize its population behind a conflict more easily. The Russian president got many things wrong about invading Ukrainebut not everything. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. Thank you for supporting the site. The world over, countries are embarking on ambitious projects of industrial policy. China's increased aggression against Taiwan and in the South China Sea is another point of hostility. With a fascination for international relations. China and Russia vs NATO. China should not support Russias illegal war., Stoltenberg said potential Chinese assistance would amount to providing (direct) support to a blatant violation of international law, and of course (as) a member of the U.N. security council China should not in any way support violation of the U.N. charter, or international law.. Ukraines economy and infrastructure have been dealt blows that will take decades to recover from. As Russia threatens the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II, the most consequential strategic question of the 21st century is becoming clear: How can the United States manage two revisionist, autocratic, nuclear-armed great powers (Russia and China) simultaneously? Here's the latest. It has over 1.4 billion people, compared to the combined populations of NATO countries 946 million. Putin has found an economic lifeline in Beijing that only Washington can destroy. In general, China would like Western influence to be rolled-back and for it to create its own spheres of influence. All information comes from wikipedia.org, cia.gov, icanw.org, government websites and press releases. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? A new T-14 Armata main battle tank costs the Russian government around $3.7 million; again, about one third the expense of a NATO and American tank. For its part, Washington has made a series of policy choices over the last few years that can be summed Show moreup as tough on Beijing, even seeking to contain the rise of the worlds second-biggest economy. Terms of Use By one estimate from Harvard University, more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, in addition to the deaths of more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians. NATO. The U.S. The American CIA later confirmed that the bombing was directed by them but continued to state it was an accident. Global Affairs Explained participants in a number of affiliate programs, including by Amazon Services LLC. Some information is indicative and estimated because of lack of official or up-to-date data. Cue the protests from other parts of the globe: A chorus of nations are accusing Washington of fostering unfair competition. For the West to prevail, the United States must lead the fight with a strategy suited to the complex challenges we face. Ukraine is, of course, not a member and therefore the alliance is not obliged to defend it. subscription, ePaper CompareEconomy.com. The first question to ask when assessing a possible conflict between China and NATO is which is stronger militarily. The link is to the book on Amazon.com. The overall size of a military force is often not enough to determine the outcome of a conflict. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express. The answer, according to many politicians and defense experts, is that Washington must moderate its response to Russia in Europe to focus on the greater threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific. China is also one contiguous territory, whereas NATO is divided across the North Atlantic. Developments in recent months have caused international concern that major nuclear-armed powers could be dragged into direct conflict. European allies should invest in armor and artillery while Asian allies buy naval mines, harpoon missiles, and submarines. Depending on where any war between China and NATO was fought, it could be a defining factor. Watchthe conversation onFP Live, the magazines forum for live journalism, orreada condensed transcript. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also used his military to aggravate neighbouring Asian countries as well as the West. Security, With over one million more frontline troops, it is clear that NATO is much more powerful than China. Its leaders know that a war with Russia will be MAD (mutually assured destruction). This site is owned and operated by Duncan Ball. A good strategy, however, starts with clear goals, and Washingtons objectives are to maintain peace and stability in both Europe and Asia. The only realistic circumstances that could see NATO countries fight a war with China is over the island of Taiwan. but thats just an overview. But without the full force of the US, there is absolutely no way European powers would stand a chance. Is Weiss correct? Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow has to take into account NATO's . The West has its problems, obviously, as does everyone in this pandemic. If big boys China and Russia can work together, others can join and feel . General Sir Chris Deverell, the former British military chief, tweeted few days ago that imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine seems increasingly necessary, adding that Nato is destined to face Russia sooner or later. Enemies with poor air-defense weapons such as Russian or . Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. Express. Biden put on shades and, with a heavy security entourage, strutted through the central square of Kyiv (Ukraine's capital) as if to announce that a "new . Opinion | FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. Opinion | When it comes to personnel, China . This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. Unfortunately, Washington does not get to decide how its adversaries sequence their aggression. To be sure, developing such a strategy will be challenging, but there are a number of ways to begin to square the circle. subscription, What elections in small states tell us about India, Watch Nidhi Razdan: Historic verdict by India top court, Enough of Aditya Chopra. Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with. Jessica Chen Weiss, formerly a senior advisor for policy planning at the State Department under the Biden administration, makes the case that the United States is becoming consumed by competition with China, a strategy that could lead to dangerous conflict. NATOs chief says the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. Scholz also said that Germany is working on meeting NATO's 2% defense spending target. Turkish expat in UAE wins Dh15 million in Big Ticket, Photos: Medvedev wins in Dubai for 3rd title in 3 weeks, Pakistani begins journey to conquer 14 highest peaks, Medvedev triumphs over Rublev in Dubai tennis. NATO is a European focused organization and therefore China is not directly opposed to it. Al Nisr Publishing LLC 2023. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on. I agree to abide by FPs comment guidelines. Furthermore, China has conducted military exercises in Europe and the Middle East. What will another year of war look like? It tracks Chinas incredible rise over recent decades and how Chinas growing global influence is already affecting the wider world. The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming the first nation to send fighter jets . Chinas main land dispute is over Taiwan, which is not a NATO member. This week marks exactly one year since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. However, China is thousands of miles away from any NATO member and it is almost impossible to conceive China launching an assault on a NATO member state. A More Muscular NATO Emerges as West Confronts Russia and China. That is not clear and may not be as assured. Finally, if necessary, Washington could always take a page from its Cold War playbook and rely more heavily on nuclear weapons to offset the local, conventional advantages of its rivals. NEW FOR SUBSCRIBERS: Following the implementation of international sanctions during the war, China provided economic relief to Russia. Some in Taiwan believe that it is a matter if, not when, China will attack. Ukrainian . Beijing and Moscow have invested heavily in their militaries, but only boast around 3,000 and 4,000 total aircraft respectively. Opinion | Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February has ramped up the geopolitical hostility as the West hits back with sanctions and military aid for Kyiv. Worrying signs in Punjab: Is AAP in control? In short, publishing a defense strategy that can only handle one of the United States great-power rivals (which is what is expected from the forthcoming national defense strategy) is planning to fail. This guiding principle puts all free nations around the world at risk, and necessitates that the United States as the leader of global democracies articulates a coherent foreign policy strategy for navigating the inherent dangers of the deepening relationship between the two revisionist powers. Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. . The Russian attack on Ukraine has prompted Sweden and neighboring Finland to abandon decades of nonalignment and apply to join the 30-nation alliance. NATO might claim victory for having turned back the Sino-Russian forces from their conquest of Eastern Europe. As was the case in World War II, the U.S. Army would bear the brunt of defending Europe, while the Navy would concentrate on the Pacific. We also really recommend the book China Unbound: A New World Disorder by Joanna Chiu. In short, even if this new strategic competition becomes a two-versus-one arms race, Washington is likely to prevail. A major war in Ukraine could spill across international boundaries and threaten the seven NATO allies that border Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Your guide to the most important world stories of the day. Russia would probably want to elect a new President. Instead of asking how much territory Russia has taken in one year, one should ask in what ways are the US, EU, and NATO weakened since Feb 2022 vs Russia, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, South Africa, etc. Washington is right to counter Iran's brutality at home and abroad, but that shouldn't stop it from engaging with an adversary to preserve regional peace. In order to fully understand any possible conflict between China and NATO, we need to think about how China views NATO. The country's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, has said this week that China's recent military exercises show that an invasion is being planned. Throughout the war, the US and other NATO allies have been steadily increasing the amount of security assistance for Ukraine, outfitting Kyiv with billions of dollars in advanced artillery systems, missile defense batteries, and other deadly weapons. Nukes are out. Is Weiss correct? Chinas population is significantly larger than NATOs. However, that does not stop the two from going to war. The world over, countries are embarking on ambitious projects of industrial policy. NATO is a system of collective security: its independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by others countries. Watch the conversation or read the condensed transcript. Weekly update on developments in India and its neighbors. The U.S. Army should prioritize Europe while the U.S. Navy takes the Indo-Pacific and a larger U.S. Air Force plays a significant role in both theaters. The rise of American-made chatbots has kicked off a flurry of Chinese activity. OTOH, it's likely that China would hold onto Taiwan, thus they would likely claim victory for the Sino-Russian side. NATO countries have so far kept up their support for Ukraine, but fear Russian President Vladimir Putin could turn his attention to other former Soviet states including those that are now a part of NATO. This alliance of autocracies, as Steven Lee Myers aptly deemed it, is built on a mutual belief that the Wests supremacy has declined, and that as great powers, China and Russia are entitled to rule their own spheres of influence and to use brute force to suppress human rights, self-determination and democracy. Some had hoped that the two countrys divergent geopolitical objectives, and the combined economic and political impacts from Russias protracted war would entice Chinese President Xi Jinping to reconsider whether the no limits friendship between the two nations actually did have its limit. With a reelection campaign on the horizon, and opposition to the war growing on the political right, Biden could soon lack both the political capital and the actual power to ensure that the U.S. sustains its current level of support for Ukraine. The presence of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe helped deter the massive Soviet Red Army for decades. Moscow's military has over 12,000 at its disposal compared to Beijing's 5000. As one of the most powerful military forces in the world, wouldnt China be an asset to the alliance? Canada is the second largest country in the world. But its not just the United States. Nato vs. Russia: who would win a war? Indeed, the European Union, not Asia, is the United States largest trade and investment partner, and this imbalance is much starker when China (which the United States seeks greater economic decoupling from), is removed from the equation. As Russian . Register to read and get full access to gulfnews.com, By clicking below to sign up, you're agreeing to our There are several reasons for this: It is almost impossible for China to attack Europe or North America. The pause in releasing Bidens defense strategy provides an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and get this right. Washington Must Prepare for War With Both Russia and China. April 20, 2022. Russia won China's backing in its showdown with the West over Ukraine as Beijing agreed with Moscow the US-led NATO military alliance should not admit new members. Owner of this site is not responsible for potential mistakes or lacks of data. China has stated clearly that it will reunite with Taiwan and is willing to do this by force if necessary. but thats just an overview. Therefore, China would need to attack Europe for a full war to breakout between China and NATO. The Soviet Union eventually imploded. FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. Chinas geo-political aims are to reduce Western influence and limit the power of America in the global international order. This is especially critical in light of recent reports from American intelligence agencies that China may supply Russia with weapons to aid its war against Ukraine, which would be an alarming escalation and a break from Chinas ostensibly neutral stance on the war. Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. But Putin isn't the only world leader stoking division. With the Cold War over, NATO has focused more on protecting democratic nations a further reason why China cannot join. In addition, the United States should provide strategic capabilities like its nuclear umbrella; global conventional strike capabilities, including hypersonic missiles; and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. NATO is a defensive alliance of European and North American countries. Argument: A hypothetical military alliance between China and Russia. NATO maintains its own standing army. Last week Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, threw themselves into preparations to escalate, wage and win the next phase of warfare in Ukraine. It's the most powerful military alliance in human history versus well, Russia and China. From NATO's point of view, Russia has to be made to pay a high price if it invades Ukraine, to deter it from advancing further. A curated selection of our very best long reads. Californias bullet train almost seems designed to discredit state government We must improve engagement with our allies, demonstrate Americas commitment to defending democracy and use the full economic and military potential of the combined Western world in order to uphold the values we hold so dear. China Actually, there are a two clear reasons why China is not in NATO: Only countries in Europe or North America can join NATO. 4 Feb 2022. Managing public perception about the war to control the narrative and maintain support seems to have required a divorce between what NATO officials are telling Ukraine privately and what they are telling the public they are telling Ukraine. Russia. While Washington pivots to Asia, wealthy European countries, such as Germany, should step up to provide for NATOs defense. Quote Reply. Some might argue that the days of a U.S. economic advantage are numbered due to Chinas rise, but Chinas internal dysfunctions are catching up with it. Youre on the list! Rose-colored glasses dont change facts about inflation The other countries involved will include several ex-Soviet nations, China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua and Syria. India needs a Yash Chopra, India: Rahul Gandhi needs to get the messaging right. READ MORE:Europe faces nuclear meltdown: Power plant bombs spark emergency. The combined armies of NATO have almost 10,000 more main battle tanks than China does. Those who support Zelensky argue that a Nato vs Russia conflict is inevitable anyway. This website stores cookies on your computer. The US and its allies have even ruled out a move to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine as demanded by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his supporters in the west. Asked whether NATO has any indication that China might be ready to provide arms or other support to Russias war, Stoltenberg said: We have seen some signs that they may be planning for that and of course NATO allies, the United States, have been warning against it because this is something that should not happen. In comparison, the combined military budgets of all NATO member countries was approximately $900 billion. An expert's point of view on a current event. 20,155. He concluded his speech with a video that ended with the words, Close the sky over Ukraine. In similar speeches he has made during the past month, he urged everyone who would listen to confront Russias air power. Stoltenberg spoke to The Associated Press in Warsaw, following a meeting of NATO's nine eastern flank members with U.S. President Joe Biden on the region's security. NATO countries together maintain 15 battalions with around 130 tanks in the same region and around 90 of those are the American M-1s on their temporary rotation. Well send you latest news updates through the day. And how might that be impacting the world? But Russia is just so much less powerful and poorer and more fragile, even than it used to be. The demand for . Further, if Putin is defeated in Ukraine, China will likely lose access to cheap Russian energy, and will have a mercurial, humiliated and nuclear-armed dictator on its northern border. Russia Simply, the enormous distance between China and any NATO member, combined with Chinas inability to project its military strength to Europe or North America means China is little direct threat to NATO. Sen. Chris Murphy, a Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, told NBC News on Tuesday that the U.S. needs to be careful not to send too much military hardware to Ukraine or it could risk . China did not back Russia's war in Georgia in 2008, or its invasion of Ukraine in . Opinion | I doubt, although the recent developments showed that nothing is out of the question these days. Although NATO is clearly larger military than China, what would happen if a war broke-out between them? No large protests. But the inducements encourage U.S. companies to invest only at homenot elsewhere. A new group tries to save democracy from Trumpism China had "invested in modern aircraft and weapons to fight us," he noted, and US forces would also face the "tyranny of distance" - most of the US air power used in the war game . Their predictions are that NATO would win but with devastating losses. Ukraine says fighters holding their ground in Bakhmut, but at a heavy cost. NATO's main headquarters are located in Brussels. But what could cause a war between China and NATO? Instead, Washington and its allies should develop a defense strategy capable of deterring and, if necessary, defeating Russia and China at the same time. One-stop digest of politics, economics, and culture. The threat posed by China is also serious. Considering some militants as instruments of regional influence while fighting others has had disastrous consequences. Alex says. However, the Chinese government does not have an official policy against NATO and it cannot be said that everyone in China has a hatred for the alliance. Countries in Asia cannot be members of NATO. There is almost no circumstances where NATO and China would go to war. However, with that said, tensions between China and the US are rising. If any member state is attacked by a third party, then every member state must step in to defend it. The repeated calls have somehow been so effective that a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that a broad bipartisan majority of Americans, 74 per cent, think the US should work with Nato to set up no-fly zones to protect Ukraine from Russian air strikes.. Importantly, there is almost no reason why China would attack NATO. For the first time in any of Russia's recent aggressions, Putin has won the open support of China's leader. 510. In many ways, this is key to understanding relations between China and the military alliance. The UK is the second biggest overall spender in Nato, putting nearly 50bn into defence annually, compared with Germany's 45bn, France's 42bn and Italy's 20bn. NATO and China are two of the most powerful forces in the world. What will another year of war look like? What does that mean for trade and globalization? By signing up, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to occasionally receive special offers from Foreign Policy. We agree with a One China policy. Air power is key in modern conflicts. The question would be, would this be seen as an attack on NATO or not? The leading Nato power, the US, has an army of active 1.346 million soldiers. Weve linked to the paperback on Amazon.com. As democracies, NATO countries need significant buy-in from their populations in order to take on a major conflict. NATO allies also dominate in the air with over 20,000 total aircraft. And why would China be against it? This should include incorporating key allies into military planning, sharing responsibilities, and devising a rational division of labor for weapons acquisition.