[1] Examining patterns within states reveals that the reversal of the two parties' geographic bases has happened at the state level, but it is more complicated locally, with urban-rural divides associated with many of the largest changes.[2]. But Pennsylvania is now red. Further, all election maps are subject to the interpretation error known as the ecological fallacy. Press Enter to view state-level map. Clinton:36,322 (35.80%). Special elections, if any, are excluded. Data: The Princeton Gerrymandering Project through 2018; 270toWin research. From the 2000-2004 election only three states changed Color. Red States 1 Arizona 1 Alabama 2 California 2 Secondly, I'm looking to see if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. Report that just went out from the Pennsylvania Election Protection Coalition on issues today in the state: "Among the issues: Several polling places opened late. Nevertheless, both parties have adopted logos that use their respective colors i.e., a blue D for Democrats and a white GOP with a red elephant for Republicans. [39] In 2008, 48 percent of U.S. voters lived in such counties, which increased further to 50 percent in 2012 and to 61 percent in 2016. Since the 1984 election, CBS has used the opposite scheme: blue for Democrats, red for Republicans. '"[20], There are several problems in creating and interpreting election maps. In Maine, two of the four electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner in each of the state's two congressional districts. That march then met Hillary Clinton's 'blue wall' states which, at one time, included Pennsylvania. This may have been a holdover from the Civil War, during which the predominantly Republican north was considered "blue". While there are various techniques available, the choice is essentially arbitrary. Independent candidate Ralph Nader did not win any electoral votes, yet he received 2% of the vote of voters from high-income households and voters with graduate degrees. The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. It is now seen that the Democratic Blue and Republican Red color scheme is now part of the lexicon of American journalism. Not one! However, the combination of higher vote margins than Clinton in Tucson (Pima County) and Maricopa's flip from red to blue meant Biden still prevailed inthe state. That made a difference in a state that was ultimately decided by roughly 45,000votes. I think it's the state to watch. Trump:61,386 (60.51%) Both parties have since adopted logos that use their respective colors (a blue "D" for Democrats[56] and a red "GOP" for Republicans). The answer, of course, is yes they are both of those. The presidential primary contests are usually decided before Pennsylvania holds its primary, which is on Tuesday, April 26, this year. Purple haze Pa.: Why the Keystone State is always a presidential battleground. With 100% of precincts reporting, Trump won the state with . [23], Finally, there are problems associated with human perception. Data: MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse through 2018; 270toWin research. But I've got news for them, too. I don't know where to begin! The choices of color and shading likewise affect the map's appearance. Experts weigh in on swing-state status. Biden did so by rebuilding the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to NBC News projections. [12] The 2000 election was not the first during which the news media used colored maps to depict voter preferences in the various states, but it was the first time the current red-blue terminology was used. Anita Trump aides were claiming high turnout in Republican areas in Luzerne, which is one of the three counties that flipped from supporting Obama to Trump in 2016. The reliably blue state in a presidential election was one of many flipped by President Donald Trump in his 2016 win. By opting into newsletters you are agreeing to our. One trend that has been true for several election cycles is that states that vote Republican tend to be more rural and more sparsely populated (thus having fewer electoral votes) than states that vote Democratic. Same caution about borders applies. By this definition, Arizona and Georgia are still (slightly) red states R+7.6 and R+7.4, respectively. While the blue states represented a comparatively small geographic area, they contained large populations, which made President Bush's national endorsement less than the redblue map would seem to indicate. They had ads, social media, conference calls, press releases, you name it on, all on fracking. POLITICO's Live 2016 Pennsylvania Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. For other uses, see, Contrast with color usage in other countries, Table of presidential elections by states since 1972. Similarly, Tennessee was won by Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but going into 2004, its governor was a Democrat and both chambers of the state legislature were controlled by Democrats as well. I talked to several elected officials and voter rights groups today, and everyone reported high turnout, particularly in Philadelphia. But look, this is what PA elected officials told us could happen for months. More married men voted for McCain, but more single men voted for Obama. Dec. 10, 2020. Survive and Thrive March 2023: How Long Have You Been in the Investment Business? States that voted against Mr. Trump in 2016 have seen 103,918 deaths, according to the latest New York Times tally on Thursday afternoon, compared with 91,525 in states that supported him. [45][46] Red states and blue states are states that typically vote for the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively. While they may have voted for Biden in 2020, they did so by margins smaller than his. Biden rebuilt the "blue wall" and expanded the map Rust Belt states have been the base of Democrats' electoral map for a generation, but along with winning them back, Biden also expanded the. Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. )Voters spoiled mail-in ballots at high rates, and some poll workers were confused about how to process those ballots. However, the current U.S. scheme has become so ingrained in the American election system that foreign sources who cover U.S. elections, such as the BBC, Der Spiegel and El Mundo follow with the red-Republican, blue-Democratic scheme for U.S. China Hopes Recovery Dims Memories of Zero COVID Debacle, Industry Races to Diversify Away from China. [47][48][49] A different poll that same year grouped the United States into five geographic regions, and found that 37% of Americans favored secession of their own region. It is 62 percent Republican, 25 percent Democrat and 13 percent other. CATO INSTITUTE: Central Bank Digital Currencies Are a Threat to Freedom. Electoral votes invalidated. Biden didn't flip any counties in Georgia. Polarization is more evident on a county scale with the growing percentage of the U.S. electorate living in "landslide counties", counties where the popular vote margin between the Democratic and Republican candidate is 20 percentage points or greater. California and New York have become national catalysts for progressive policies, while Texas and Florida have become the most powerful advocates of conservative alternatives. However, the fun fact is that neither of the party national committees has officially accepted these color designations, though informal use by each party is becoming common. Eight of the districts gave Trump 58% or higher. Same Since 2000: After 2020 Election Election results provided by the Associated Press. Copyright 2023 | Terms & Conditions | About Us | Dick Young | Archives. That's why it was interesting to see Trump rehash his line on fracking in Bucks County during a rally on Saturday. The political map of Pennsylvania is often described as a T with Republicans holding sway up the center of the state and across its northern tier, and Democrats strongest in the southeast and southwest. A 2021 poll found that 52% of Trump voters and 41% of Biden voters support partitioning the United States into multiple countries based on political party lines. The next batch will be reported at 9 a.m. (I am deleting my post earlier that said Philly officials said they were not reporting more mail-in results tonight, because it appears to have been based on incomplete information. Idaho solidifies its ranking as a top retirement state by offering many tax breaks for seniors. Continue with Recommended Cookies. Election maps often use a two-class color scheme (red and blue), which results in a map that is easy to read but is very generalized. So how does all that look visually? After the 2004 election, Vanderbei and then others made similar maps summarizing the results. [58], The choice of colors in this divide may appear counter-intuitive to non-American observers, as in most countries, red is associated with socialist, communist, or social democratic parties, while blue is associated with conservative parties. In recent years the state government has moved from purple with a democratic governor and a republican legislature with a modest majority, to fire engine red. Not one! The "blue wall" went blue once again Democratic. Pennsylvania's diversity is mostly on par with the rest of the nation. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee alluded to the color scheme when it launched a national Red to Blue Program in 2006. But in 2016, although Hillary Clinton won Latino voters by roughly 30 points, turnout was remarkably . Before Trump's 2016 win, the state voted. When a state is called a "red state", it means that it has traditionally voted in favor of Republican candidates. Before you read the Blue States and the Red States list, lets find out how the naming of a state with color started! Lancaster County is 52 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat and 16 percent independents and others. That's changed in recent years as political polarization has increased, resulting in red and blue strongholds with bigger victory margins. The state has 20 electoral votes at stake in the presidential race. A lengthy post-Election court battle is the scenario Biden's camp has so fiercely tried to avoid by expanding their map to 17states. If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoralvotes.. In 2020, the state with the highest crime rate in the United States per 100,000 inhabitants was New Mexico. Thats a point that they made. The consent submitted will only be used for data processing originating from this website. One smart PA Dem strategist told me he wanted Biden to get to 40% in the county. The state now has just half the 38 electoral votes it had a century ago. Democrats' new logo: Change you can sell? Voters head to the polls on Nov. 3 in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state that boasts 20 electoral votes. With the caveat that we still know very, very little about Pennsylvania, let's zoom in on one county: Washington County, which is in the pro-Trump western part of the state. You have entered an incorrect email address! Anita And in a sign of how important PA is to the race, Biden tried to fend off Trump's attacks over fracking over and over. Both campaigns have armies of attorneys at the ready for PA and other states. Wisconsin is a swing, or purple, state. Pennsylvania is generally considered a battleground state, although it voted Democratic in the six elections prior to 2016. What are red and blue states? But in western Pennsylvania, as well as the northeast, it's more popular and has led to a boom in some areas that have been struggling economically for a long time. However, as inGeorgia, the majority of Biden's gains came from larger vote margins in counties that also voted Democratic in 2016. But maps that color entire counties red or blue can dupe viewers: they make both states . Where the 'Blue Wall' Was Strongest, and Where Cracks Appeared. The Keystone State became one of the three collapsed Democratic Blue Wall states that handed Trump the election. Similarly, at least one network would have used yellow to indicate a state won by Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996, though neither of them did claim any states in any of these years. The Tennessee Department of Health reports that 1,451 people died of drug overdose within the state in 2015. Later, in the 1888 presidential election, Grover Cleveland and Benjamin Harrison used maps that coded blue for the Republicans, the color perceived to represent the Union and "Lincoln's Party", and red for the Democrats. One problem occurs when areal units differ in size and significance, as is the case with election maps. ABC used yellow for Republicans and blue for Democrats in 1976, then red for Republicans and blue for Democrats in 1980, 1984, and 1988. polls closed in Ala., Conn., Del., D.C., Fla., Ill., Maine, Md., Mass., Miss., Mo., N.H., N.J., Okla., Pa., R.I., Tenn. polls closed in Ga., Ind., Ky., S.C., Vt., Va. Presidential results by pre-election forecasted chances, Georgia Senate elections live updates: Jon Ossoff projected to win Ga. Senate seat, ABC News projects Ossoff victory over Perdue, Raffensperger escorted out of state Capitol building, says deputy secretary of state, Here are Georgia's election certification deadlines, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Special elections, if any, are excluded. [1] According to The Washington Post, journalist Tim Russert invented these terms during his televised coverage of the 2000 United States presidential election. You have to beware with these reports, though. This election cycle, voters in Pennsylvania were universally able to vote by mail in the general election. Two counties flipped from red to blue: Erie, in Pennsylvania's northwestern corner, and Northampton, in eastern Pennsylvania. Holly My point in mentioning Montgomery County and Philly is that if those places aren't reporting all their votes, the red mirage scenario is still very much in place if the president chose thatroute. Inversely, in solidly red states, most voters in most urban counties voted for Democrat Barack Obama; good examples for this would be Dallas County, Texas and Fulton County, Georgia (the locations of major U.S. cities Dallas and Atlanta, respectively). Idaho. One source claims that in the elections prior to 2000 every state that voted for Democratic candidates but one had been coded red. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. 4, another 2020 red state. Archie Tse, The New York Times graphics editor who made the choice when the Times published its first color presidential election map in 2000, provided a nonpolitical rationale for retaining the redRepublican link, explaining that "Both 'Republican' and 'red' start with the letter 'R. Forty-seven of the 50 states were consistent in voting for George W. Bush or his Democratic opponent in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. As a group, adults younger than age 40 voted for Obama. But two of those five losing states that voted for Trump Michigan and Pennsylvania surprised most analysts since they have been blue-leaners for several years. In the days after the 2000 election, the outcome of which was unknown for some time after election day, major media outlets began conforming to the same color scheme because the electoral map was continually in view, and conformity made for easy and instant viewer comprehension. (lighter shading indicates win 5%), Winner received plurality of the vote but did not receive an outright majority of the popular vote In the 2000 election, Bush received a smaller share of the popular vote than Al Gore, and four years later defeated John Kerry by this count by less than two and a half percentage points. The county with biggest Republican edge is rural Snyder, near the center of the state. Per Holly's point, keep in mind Montgomery County is a giant, the third most populous county in the state. The vast majority of reported incidents involved concerns about unlawful electioneering or interference at polling sites. If youre willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email. These states often had more regulations and higher taxes. More than 75% of the land area is red, when looking at the map based on land areas, while shifting to the population view only about 46% of the map is red. 22 vs. 27th) and better average grades in eight of the 14 separate ranking topics: livability, rai The use of the term Blue or Red has been expanded to differentiate between states being perceived as Liberal and those perceived as Conservative. The key swing region is the. Texas was the biggest winner the second-most populous state added two congressional seats, while Florida and North Carolina gained one. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. by The Hill staff - 10/24/14 6:00 AM ET. Some precincts reported mechanical problems or ran out of supplies. Feelings of cultural and political polarization between red and blue states, which have gained increased media attention since the 2004 election, have resulted in increased mutual feelings of alienation and enmity. In the three presidential elections since 2008, Indiana and North Carolina went back to supporting Republicans. In fact, the only Georgia county that flipped Burke voted Clinton in 2016, then Trump in 2020. Holly If Biden loses Fla, North Carolina and Georgia, his so-called greater Midwest certainly includes winning Pennsylvania. The Wolverine State grew by 2.0% or 193,691 people from 2010 to 2020, raising its population to 10,077,331. Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections choosing 20 of the last 25 . Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and one district in Maine voted Republican in 2016. That year, the crime rate was 3,620.15 crimes per . 44% of Americans in the South favored secession, with Republican support at 66%; while Democratic support was 47% in the Pacific states.[50][51][52]. The state went to Trump in 2016, but this time around, it flipped to Biden by a narrow margin. Both provided Obama with double-digit margins of victory over McCain. The county with the most lopsided voter registration margin is Philadelphia, which is 78 percent Democrat, 11 percent Republican and 11 percent other. Below, we've broken out how 16 battleground states voted since 2000 and what the ever-changing Electoral College map could mean going forward. Since a 25-25 tie following the 1992 elections, Republicans have held the Senate in every subsequent election, their power peaking after 2016 with a 34-16 supermajority. In 2018, the governor's race was settled by just 55,000 votes. (PA, GA, MI)". We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. These "purple maps" are useful for showing the highly mixed nature of voting, but are extremely difficult to interpret in detail. Anita What do you want to know? [18], Thus, red and blue became fixed in the media and in many people's minds, despite the fact that the Democratic and Republican parties had not officially chosen colors. Nebraska's 2nd district flipped back into the Republican column in 2012 and 2016, but supported Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania's median household income falls in the middle of the pack. And then, like Anita, I am watching to see how POTUS reacts. [24] A juxtaposition of differing colors and shades can result in contrast misperceptions. Similarly, one state south, 56.45 percent of Oregon voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 compared to just 40.37 percent for Donald Trump. Purple states are also often referred to as "battleground" states. The most significant difference between blue and red states occurred from late June to early August. The numbers are clear: in 2020, 57.97 percent of Washington voters chose Joe Biden, and only 38.77 percent chose Donald Trump. All 50 States of the United States of America contain both Democratic and Republican voters but only Blue or Red colors appear on the electoral map because of the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College. That election saw Donald Trump win the state by 0.7%, one of three 'blue wall' states (Michigan & Wisconsin the others) he won on his way to winning the presidential election. [19] Some Republicans argue the GOP should retain its historic association with blue, since most center-right parties worldwide are associated with blue. This is nice, but you do realize that Maryland has elected Republican governors 3 of the last 5 elections and currently has a Republican sitting in the capital. This is most evident in the Southern United States, where the state Democratic Party organizations tend to be more conservative than the national party, especially on social issues. Click here to learn more about the role the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund plays in Lancaster County and to make a tax-deductible donation. The 2020 election has caused anxiety among Americans to remain high as some states are still counting ballots. Massachusetts is a blue state with a red governor making red states look worse on mortality. Quickly thereafter, the term Purple America entered the public lexicon as a way of stating that the United States is not as divided as the political pundits would have the people believe. On Election Day, polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. All five of the aforementioned states were decided by 1% or less in the year (2016 or 2020) they came off this map. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. I feel like my job this entire night might be explaining why #nothingmatters inPA. Former Governor Ed Rendell gives his take. The only deviations from the preexisting red-blue paradigm were all in Obama's favor. If Jimmy Carter, the Democratic candidate that year, won a state, it was lit in red whereas if Gerald Ford, the incumbent Republican president, won a state, it was lit in blue. In fact, he said, some states may experience a "red shift," and even Pennsylvania's blue shift may change in the future as different voters adapt to the new absentee ballot system and counties that used to process them on election night stop doing so. Data: Wikipedia through 2018; 270toWin research. McCain got a slight majority (52% to 47%) of households consisting of married couples; Obama led almost 21 (65% to 33%) among unmarried voters. In 2008, Obama won in Iowa and New Hampshire by more than nine percentage points, and New Mexico by double digits. The source defines a mass shooting as a shooting where three or more people. Use arrow keys to move around the map. An email has been sent to with a link to confirm list signup. The analysis that suggests political, cultural and demographic differences between the states is more accurate when applied to smaller geographical areas. Geographic borders associated with district numbers may have changed. Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, New York and Pennsylvaniaare also among the ten densest states in the US. Pennsylvania voted democratic in the 2020 election. This is still a substantial difference from the period 1960 to 1980 when every state, save for Arizona, voted for each party at least once. In April 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain predicted that the presidential election that November would not follow the red-state-blue-state pattern, saying, "I'm not sure that the old red state, blue state scenario that prevailed for the last several elections works. In 1908, The New York Times printed a special color map, using blue for Democrats and yellow for Republicans, to detail Theodore Roosevelt's 1904 electoral victory. 30,000+ mail ballots a teeny tiny fraction of the 2.5 million received as of this morning in the state were just reported in Pennsylvania. This problem is compounded if the units are not equally significant. Latino voters in the state, like those across the U.S., constitute a solid base for Democrats. And when election results flowed in Tuesday night, Nov. 2, Studio 8-H at 30 Rockefeller Center lit up. [1] NBC newsman David Brinkley famously referred to the 1980 election map outcome showing Republican Ronald Reagan's 44-state landslide in blue as resembling a "suburban swimming pool".[14]. Twenty red states are expected to go for President Donald Trump, and 23 blue states (including DC) are expected to go for former Vice President Joe Biden. This election cycle, according to Politico, the state is leaning slightly blue. List Of Blue States And Red States No. But the cultural wounds cut the deepest, and are the most likely to drive working-class people to look at the coastal elites and say: "That. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The elections in Arkansas as well as West Virginia in 2004 were won by Republican President George W. Bush, but Democrats at the time held all four U.S. Senate seats and majorities of elected executive officeholders in those states, including the governorship of the latter. Although many red states and blue states stay in the same category for long periods, they may also switch from blue to red or from red to blue over time. Throughout much of this campaign cycle, Pennsylvania has been considered a hotly contested toss-up, and it has been the focus of several mail voting-related lawsuits. .mw-parser-output .citation{word-wrap:break-word}.mw-parser-output .citation:target{background-color:rgba(0,127,255,0.133)}^1: Split their votes. VOA explains. Heres why Pennsylvania is a Red State to the core. Overall, Pennsylvania is a "blue state" 49 percent of registered voters are Democrats, 37 percent are Republicans and 14 percent are independents or members of minor parties. Virginia has continued voting for the Democratic presidential nominees (as well as increasingly electing Democrats at the state level), leading to its being reclassified as a blue state in recent years. [41][note 1][42]. For example, due to the simultaneous contrast effect, the Bezold effect, and other factors, an area shaded light red surrounded by areas shaded dark red will appear even lighter. In the 2008 elections, both parties received at least 40% from all sizable socioeconomic demographics, except that McCain (Republican) received 37% from voters earning $15,000$30,000, and 25% from voters earning under $15,000, according to exit polling. While I had less reporting on this, high turnout was also reported in the red parts of the state, too. NBC continued its color scheme (blue for Republicans) until 1996. But registration figures vary greatly by county. Special elections, if any, are excluded. List Of Blue States And Red States In The United States (2023), List Of US States And Their Capitals In Alphabetical Order With PDF, Presidents Of The United States Of America In Chronological Order, Who Is The Secretary Of Defense In The United States, List Of US Senators State Wise (2023 Updated), List Of Airports In The US (United States) With IATA & ICAO, Secretary General Of The United Nations (2023 Updated), 250+ Measuring Devices And Instruments (2023 Updated), List Of All Social Networking Sites And Their Founders (2023), List Of All Commercial Airports In India (2023 Updated), List Of Prime Minister Of Italy (2023 Updated). A purple state refers to a swing state where both Democratic and Republican candidates receive many votes without an overwhelming majority for either party. These are general election results for the years listed. The steady expansion of Denver and its suburbs turned a red state into a purple state, then into a blue state where Republicans struggle to win. Various different maps, such as ones which coded states based on the strength of their support for one candidate or another, ones which gave results based on county, or ones which displayed states according to the size of their population, were proposed as correctives to this perceived flaw. In U.S. politics it's common to hear red states and blue states, but where did the expression come from? So first, I'm looking to see what exactly we learn tonight and how quickly local governments across the state are able to process mail ballots. Update: Philadelphia officials tell me they will report more mail-in ballot results betweenmidnight and 1 a.m. The Blue States and the Red States are referred to as states of the U.S. whose voters predominantly choose either the Democratic Party (Blue) or Republican Party (Red) for Presidential and Senatorial Candidates. Christopher On the expectation-setting remarked upon earlier from the Biden campaign about Florida, what are we to make of the fact that the campaign told me this a few days ago about Pennsylvania that "we can win without Pennsylvania," though they didn't think they'd needto? A large county or state in area may have fewer voters than a small one in area, for example.